Labour up 14%. Lumber stable. Steel volatile. Our quarterly read on the Northern Rockies market.
We produce estimates for projects across the United States, but our deepest market intelligence is in Montana and the Northern Rockies. Here is what we are seeing in 2026 — updated quarterly.
Labour
Skilled trade labour in the Flathead Valley is up 14% year-over-year. The driver is simple: Kalispell's population has grown 22% in five years, and the trade workforce has not kept pace. Concrete, framing, and mechanical labour are the tightest. We are recommending 10–12% labour contingency on all Flathead County projects through at least Q3 2026.
Lumber
After the wild swings of 2021–2023, dimensional lumber has stabilised. Engineered lumber (LVL, PSL, glulam) remains elevated — expect premiums of 8–12% over 2019 baseline. Mass timber is improving as domestic production capacity increases.
Steel
Structural steel remains volatile. Domestic mill pricing has been relatively stable, but fabricator backlogs are long — 16–20 weeks for complex shapes. We are recommending early procurement on structural steel for any project breaking ground in Q3 or Q4.
Concrete
Ready-mix lead times in Flathead County are extended. The Kalispell plant has capacity constraints, and the nearest alternative is a 45-minute haul from Missoula. Factor in pour scheduling limitations and longer cure windows for summer projects.
Our adjustment
For all Montana projects estimated in 2026, we are applying a 6% market escalation factor to the base estimate, up from 3% in 2024. This reflects current conditions — not a prediction. If conditions change, we will update and tell you.